Lola Evans
19 Jul 2019, 05:54 GMT+10
MANILA, Philippines - Developing Asia will maintain strong but moderating growth this year and next, as supportive domestic demand counteracts an environment of global trade tensions, according to a new Asian Development Bank (ADB) report released on Thursday.
In a supplement to its Asian Development Outlook (ADO), ADB maintains growth forecasts for developing Asia at 5.7% in 2019 and 5.6% in 2020-unchanged from its April forecast. These growth rates are slightly down from developing Asia's 5.9% growth in 2018. Excluding the newly industrialized economies of Hong Kong, China; South Korea; Singapore; and Taiwan, the regional growth outlook has been revised down from 6.2% to 6.1% in 2019 and maintained at that rate in 2020.
Deepening trade tension between China and the United States remains the largest downside risk to this outlook, despite an apparent truce in late June that could allow trade negotiations between the two countries to resume.
"Even as the trade conflict continues, the region is set to maintain strong but moderating growth," ADB Chief Economist Mr. Yasuyuki Sawada said Thursday. "However, until the world's two largest economies reach agreement, uncertainty will continue to weigh on the regional outlook."
The growth outlook for East Asia in 2019 has been revised down to 5.6% because of slower than expected activity in South Korea. The subregion's growth outlook of 5.5% for 2020 is unchanged from April. Growth for the subregion's largest economy, China, is also unchanged, with forecasts of 6.3% in 2019 and 6.1% in 2020, as policy support offsets softening growth in domestic and external demand.
In South Asia, the economic outlook is robust, with growth projected at 6.6% in 2019 and 6.7% in 2020, albeit lower than forecast in April. The growth outlook for India has been cut to 7.0% in 2019 and 7.2% in 2020 because the fiscal 2018 outturn fell short.
The outlook for Southeast Asia has been downgraded slightly to 4.8% in 2019 and 4.9% in 2020 due to the trade impasse and a slowdown in the electronics cycle. In Central Asia, the growth outlook for 2019 has been revised up to 4.3% on account of an improved outlook for Kazakhstan. Central Asia's growth outlook of 4.2% for 2020 is unchanged from April. The growth outlook in the Pacific-3.5% in 2019 and 3.2% in 2020-is unchanged, as the subregion continues to rebound from the effects of Cyclone Gita and an earthquake in Papua New Guinea, the subregion's largest economy.
The major industrial economies have had slight revisions to their growth forecasts, with the US revised up to 2.6% for 2019 and the Euro area revised down to 1.3%. The growth outlook for Japan is unchanged at 0.8% in 2019 and 0.6% in 2020.
Developing Asia's inflation projections were revised up from 2.5% to 2.6% for both 2019 and 2020, reflecting higher oil prices and various domestic factors, such as the continuing outbreak of African swine fever in several Asian economies, which is expected to drive up pork prices in China.
(Photo credit: dailyhunt).
Get a daily dose of New Zealand Star news through our daily email, its complimentary and keeps you fully up to date with world and business news as well.
Publish news of your business, community or sports group, personnel appointments, major event and more by submitting a news release to New Zealand Star.
More InformationWASHINGTON, DC - U.S. investigators are trying to determine what caused a Saudi air force pilot in the United States ...
TEHRAN (Tasnim) - China Friday said it had taken 'reciprocal' measures against US diplomats in the country, who will have ...
HYDERABAD, India - Four men accused of the rape and murder of a 27-year old woman veterinarian in Hyderabad, India ...
Canada recently voted at the United Nations for the establishment of a Palestinian state. At the same time, Canada reiterated ...
APIA, SAMOA, Pacific Ocean - UN teams are on the ground in Samoa as the country combats a deadly measles ...
PORTLAND, Oregon - Like many Americans, Aaron Cole and his wife had been able to save up a nest egg ...
NEW YORK, New York - A robust jobs market in the U.S. may help the country avoid a recession. Figures ...
TEHRAN (Tasnim) - China Friday said it had taken 'reciprocal' measures against US diplomats in the country, who will have ...
SYDNEY, Australia - Stocks in Asia made a welcome return to the black on Friday, to close out what has ...
BEIJING, China - The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has approved a $300 million results-based lending program with private sector involvement ...
NEW YORK, New York - U.S. stock markets made minor gains on Thursday as speculation over the outcome of trade ...
DUSHANBE, Tajikistan - Tajikistan is reportedly on the cusp of selling a stake in its main industrial concern to a ...